What Just Happened?

A Brief History of the 21st Century and What It Means for Design

A mere 10 years ago, our biggest worry was Y2K. We were bombarded with dire predictions about computers going crazy at one second after midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, snarling all things digital and randomly rearranging our e-mail, financial records, and air traffic control. Some people even canceled their New Years travel plans, fearing that their jumbo jet could become hopelessly lost in the heavens. Alas … didn’t happen. But in the intervening decade, a lot of other stuff did.

With 9/11, the prospect of systematic terrorism on U.S. soil was thrust onto center stage. This was followed in short order by a war that seemed to be over within months but hasn’t ended yet. Then a huge surge in the stock market created historic levels of new wealth, which in turn fueled unprecedented growth and prosperity worldwide, especially in China. Awareness of global warming also made an appearance, just in time to cast a pall over the burst of industrialization. Then, of course, the Great Recession, from which we learned that if enough people in Florida get behind on their mortgage, an entire country can be bankrupted (Iceland). Who knew?

While all this was going on, nerds from Stanford (Larry Page and Sergy Brin) and Harvard (Mark Zuckerberg) were pulling all-nighters inventing Google and Facebook, which allow us to find out pretty much anything we want to know on a 24-7 basis and then share it (along with our most intimate secrets) with thousands of our closest personal friends.

Toss in a few natural disasters (tsunamis, hurricanes, and volcanoes), and just for good measure, add the very real prospect of nuclear proliferation, courtesy of Iran and North Korea. That’s a lot to digest in just a few years.

What have we learned from all this?

The key lesson is connectivity. Politics, finance, commerce, weather — everything is intimately intertwined, we’ve come to understand. Even a very small change, like a degree or two in the average temperature of the ocean, can have huge consequences. As a result, we have developed a new appreciation for systems thinking and the power of context. From this, a different kind of economy has emerged — one that is more about creating networks and experiences than making tangible things. In turn, individual effort is being supplanted by the power of teams, with a focus on partnering, value creation, and collaborative learning. Indeed, mass collaboration is the only way we can succeed from here on out.

Why is this so important for designers? Because design thinking is what creates the interface between technology and people. Design helps us deal with change, making disruptive innovation possible. Case in point: Technology made Internet banking plausible, but it was the design of the ATM that made it accessible and then pervasive. Ditto for cell phones, iPods, and e-books.

Access to huge amounts of information would be meaningless without a way to organize, manage, interpret, and apply it. The amazing tools that have been developed in the past 10 years are merely a preview of things to come. For example, now that the human genome has been decoded, the possibilities for inventing new medical therapies are literally boundless. Google maps already keep us from getting lost, but pretty soon they’ll actually be doing the driving as well, knowing in advance which motels have vacancies.

And what about buildings? Today, they are relatively inert, but in the future, they’ll develop thinking properties, manufacture their own energy, adjust their heating and cooling systems automatically as weather and occupancy change, and even make more coffee when the pot runs low. They might even become kinetic, swiveling on their foundations to catch every available solar ray or gust of wind, essentially becoming very large, self-charging batteries in which people happen to live and work. Design will make all this, and much more, possible.

Throughout history, various classes of leadership have emerged to shape society and culture. There have been religious leaders (pharaohs and popes), military leaders (kings and generals), business leaders (industrialists and financiers) and even artistic leaders (from the Renaissance to rock-n-roll). Because the world has become so complex and interconnected, the next generation of leaders must include a new kind of priesthood: design thinkers.

We’ve already seen how powerful design can be when applied to improving mundane products such as vacuum cleaners and luggage. How much more pervasive will it be when applied to whole systems, such as health care, education, or even government? Could designers create a justice system that is swift, fair, and inexpensive? Why can’t going to court be as simple as renting a car?

You get the idea. Design, which is both a verb and a noun, is about process as well as things. This is powerful stuff. Design enables us to explore the unimaginably small (via the Large Hadron Collider at CERN) and the immensely huge (via the Hubble telescope), plus everything in between. It’s how we envision and invent. Most important, it’s essentially optimistic. Design thinking assumes successful outcomes and carries a conviction that there is always more than one way to solve a problem. Design is also democratic. It’s about what works, and anybody can do it. Design transcends borders and is not inhibited by cultural or language barriers. A great idea travels fast and is easily adopted and adapted.

But here’s a question: What will we call the great designers of the second decade of the 21st century who will provide the new ideas, strategy, and leadership that are so desperately needed? Will they be architects? Architects are creative, to be sure, but to be truly effective, they also need to develop an appetite for risk and entrepreneurship.

Perhaps it’s time that design thinking is applied to the design profession itself. How should we be training the next generation? What do they really need to know? How fast can they learn it, and by what means? How can design thinking be broadened to include other disciplines, such as finance, politics, and medicine? Why not think of business managers as process designers, law enforcement officials as designers of secure neighborhoods, and public health officials as designers of our collective good health? Getting the right answers starts by asking the right questions, and designers can lead the way.

Fast Forward to What?

It is very likely that your role in the design professions and in our industry will be changing rapidly. This is because there are new competitive threats from outside the traditional A/E/C industry structures and there are new technologies to navigate … not to mention all the reasons associated with the economy.

This changing context often leaves people confused about their long-term goals. Our position at Greenway Group is that the future is and will continue to be brimming with opportunities. If you are planning new goals for next year here is what I recommend:

• Develop a coherent and positive point of view. Right, it’s not easy to do today, but it is essential that you do this now. No one outperforms his or her own aspirations. Your point of view should be expansive and should get your adrenaline rushing. This is an essential choice you must make. This is your angle on the future.
• Revise your vision for the next three years. Backcast the action steps that will be needed to achieve the vision. Think non-linearly about inventing your future. Your plan should be edgy, not last year’s formula.
• Make more friends and be more likable. Build relationships with a quality network.
• Extinguish inertia. That is to say, co-opt and neutralize the anti-change forces around you. Push away negative forces.
• Create and use a posture and a vocabulary of action and motivation. This will become your personal dynamism. Don’t worry and stew over today’s molehill problems; take advantage of this time to think in new ways. Build bridges toward new opportunities that are often just outside the boundaries you’ve been operating in.

If you want to change anything major, you have to make a choice to do some things differently. Then, you will ride the ascendancy path toward some very interesting opportunities ahead. You’ll be amazed not only by what has been accomplished but also what you’ll be looking forward to.

Think Differently About Change

Climate change comes bearing gifts. While not welcomed offerings, these changes demand a vastly different approach in the way architects and designers think about their professional practices. Something big is happening.

Moreover, architectural careers have quit working like they used to. Climate change will affect the economy and the underlying tenets of roles and responsibilities in the making of buildings – and urban environments. The challenges brought about by climate change create new puzzles to solve. We can meet these challenges. There are many approaches.

The Design Futures Council will be hosting our 9th Leadership Summit on Sustainable Design Oct. 5-7 in Atlanta. Again this year we will bring together 100 delegates to share case studies, present deep understandings and practical experiences, and chart the future. Invitations were mailed last week to members and fellows of the Design Futures Council.

To be considered for one of the delegate positions, e-mail me at jcramer@di.net or Mary Pereboom at mpereboom@di.net. We are seeking thought leadership and a diversity of talents.

All of us need to catch on to what’s happening. We need to seize the opportunities brought about by change.