What Just Happened?

A Brief History of the 21st Century and What It Means for Design

A mere 10 years ago, our biggest worry was Y2K. We were bombarded with dire predictions about computers going crazy at one second after midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, snarling all things digital and randomly rearranging our e-mail, financial records, and air traffic control. Some people even canceled their New Years travel plans, fearing that their jumbo jet could become hopelessly lost in the heavens. Alas … didn’t happen. But in the intervening decade, a lot of other stuff did.

With 9/11, the prospect of systematic terrorism on U.S. soil was thrust onto center stage. This was followed in short order by a war that seemed to be over within months but hasn’t ended yet. Then a huge surge in the stock market created historic levels of new wealth, which in turn fueled unprecedented growth and prosperity worldwide, especially in China. Awareness of global warming also made an appearance, just in time to cast a pall over the burst of industrialization. Then, of course, the Great Recession, from which we learned that if enough people in Florida get behind on their mortgage, an entire country can be bankrupted (Iceland). Who knew?

While all this was going on, nerds from Stanford (Larry Page and Sergy Brin) and Harvard (Mark Zuckerberg) were pulling all-nighters inventing Google and Facebook, which allow us to find out pretty much anything we want to know on a 24-7 basis and then share it (along with our most intimate secrets) with thousands of our closest personal friends.

Toss in a few natural disasters (tsunamis, hurricanes, and volcanoes), and just for good measure, add the very real prospect of nuclear proliferation, courtesy of Iran and North Korea. That’s a lot to digest in just a few years.

What have we learned from all this?

The key lesson is connectivity. Politics, finance, commerce, weather — everything is intimately intertwined, we’ve come to understand. Even a very small change, like a degree or two in the average temperature of the ocean, can have huge consequences. As a result, we have developed a new appreciation for systems thinking and the power of context. From this, a different kind of economy has emerged — one that is more about creating networks and experiences than making tangible things. In turn, individual effort is being supplanted by the power of teams, with a focus on partnering, value creation, and collaborative learning. Indeed, mass collaboration is the only way we can succeed from here on out.

Why is this so important for designers? Because design thinking is what creates the interface between technology and people. Design helps us deal with change, making disruptive innovation possible. Case in point: Technology made Internet banking plausible, but it was the design of the ATM that made it accessible and then pervasive. Ditto for cell phones, iPods, and e-books.

Access to huge amounts of information would be meaningless without a way to organize, manage, interpret, and apply it. The amazing tools that have been developed in the past 10 years are merely a preview of things to come. For example, now that the human genome has been decoded, the possibilities for inventing new medical therapies are literally boundless. Google maps already keep us from getting lost, but pretty soon they’ll actually be doing the driving as well, knowing in advance which motels have vacancies.

And what about buildings? Today, they are relatively inert, but in the future, they’ll develop thinking properties, manufacture their own energy, adjust their heating and cooling systems automatically as weather and occupancy change, and even make more coffee when the pot runs low. They might even become kinetic, swiveling on their foundations to catch every available solar ray or gust of wind, essentially becoming very large, self-charging batteries in which people happen to live and work. Design will make all this, and much more, possible.

Throughout history, various classes of leadership have emerged to shape society and culture. There have been religious leaders (pharaohs and popes), military leaders (kings and generals), business leaders (industrialists and financiers) and even artistic leaders (from the Renaissance to rock-n-roll). Because the world has become so complex and interconnected, the next generation of leaders must include a new kind of priesthood: design thinkers.

We’ve already seen how powerful design can be when applied to improving mundane products such as vacuum cleaners and luggage. How much more pervasive will it be when applied to whole systems, such as health care, education, or even government? Could designers create a justice system that is swift, fair, and inexpensive? Why can’t going to court be as simple as renting a car?

You get the idea. Design, which is both a verb and a noun, is about process as well as things. This is powerful stuff. Design enables us to explore the unimaginably small (via the Large Hadron Collider at CERN) and the immensely huge (via the Hubble telescope), plus everything in between. It’s how we envision and invent. Most important, it’s essentially optimistic. Design thinking assumes successful outcomes and carries a conviction that there is always more than one way to solve a problem. Design is also democratic. It’s about what works, and anybody can do it. Design transcends borders and is not inhibited by cultural or language barriers. A great idea travels fast and is easily adopted and adapted.

But here’s a question: What will we call the great designers of the second decade of the 21st century who will provide the new ideas, strategy, and leadership that are so desperately needed? Will they be architects? Architects are creative, to be sure, but to be truly effective, they also need to develop an appetite for risk and entrepreneurship.

Perhaps it’s time that design thinking is applied to the design profession itself. How should we be training the next generation? What do they really need to know? How fast can they learn it, and by what means? How can design thinking be broadened to include other disciplines, such as finance, politics, and medicine? Why not think of business managers as process designers, law enforcement officials as designers of secure neighborhoods, and public health officials as designers of our collective good health? Getting the right answers starts by asking the right questions, and designers can lead the way.

Let’s Believe in Our Own Future

Scott Simpson

While no prediction is ever 100 percent correct (including this one!), we do know this: Sooner or later, the current recession will subside. When it does, things will be different. The conditions that existed between 2003 and 2007, which created unprecedented prosperity worldwide, will not be returning. It follows that the successes of the future will not look like the success of the past.

Over the next five years, the A/E/C industry will undergo a profound transformation, powered by the three primary game-changers of building information modeling (BIM), integrated project delivery (IPD) and Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). BIM is a technology, IPD is a process, and LEED is an attitude. Individually, each is very powerful.

Together, they combine to exert huge leverage for change. All three are at the tipping point; there is no turning back.

BIM provides a way to connect the silos of expertise that have traditionally divided the design and construction process. The increased transparency of who does what makes the interdependency among all the key team members painfully obvious. The traditional model of design/bid/build promotes a culture of self-defense, with each player on the team incentivized to consider individual interests first and team success second. With BIM, this is no longer possible; it creates a whole new sociology of design. Ironically, BIM promotes both creativity and predictability in equal measure. It’s a powerful design tool yet equally adept at demystifying design documents, bridging the gap between design intent and project execution from conception to creation.

IPD takes this a step further, substituting a single, inclusive contract that aligns the interests of the owner, architect, and construction manager. What a concept! The benefits are as obvious as wheels on luggage. IPD invites a whole new approach to decision making. Since IPD represents a truly integrated team, all the key players are at the table from day one. The traditional sequential approach no longer applies. With IPD, all the brainpower in the room can be focused like a powerful lens on the problem at hand (much as parallel processing does for computing), which leads to better, faster, and more creative solutions every time.

LEED symbolizes a profound social and political shift from an economy based on consumption to one based on the wise stewardship of shared resources. In the past, the winners were the ones who made the most or consumed the most. With sustainable design, values have shifted 180 degrees, inspiring us to ask how we can do more with less. Over the useful life of a building, even small improvements in energy use, water consumption, and air quality create huge benefits. Sustainable design is like BIM and IPD in that it forces us to recognize our interdependency — no one can win unless everybody wins. It creates an unbreakable bond of mutual interest.

As we consider what’s next, it’s important to keep in mind that design is both a noun and a verb — a thing as well as process. It’s also about creating value. As currently configured, the A/E/C industry is acknowledged to be hugely inefficient. About 37 percent of all construction materials end up as waste, some 30 percent of all projects do not meet budget and schedule, and more than 90 percent of clients believe that design documents are insufficient for their intended purpose.

A conservative estimate is that of the $1 trillion spent on construction each year, $300 billion is wasted. But here’s the good news: We can view that waste as a resource. By using new technologies, processes, and attitudes (BIM, IPD, and LEED), the waste can be re-deployed, funding innovation. The result will be better, healthier buildings, constructed faster, for less. Everybody benefits — owners, architects, constructors, and the public.

This is a natural and inevitable outcome of the post-recession economy, which will demand a new accountability for value creation. The downturn imposed a certain discipline. It made us much more cognizant of what we do, how we do it, and what we spend. Viewed correctly, this discipline, which seemed harsh at first, is actually refreshing. It opens the doors to new ideas, and as designers, ideas are our stock in trade. Going forward, we should behave as if we believe in our own future. The rest will follow.