Global Carbon Emissions Rise to Record Levels

A new report out this weekend from the Global Carbon Project paints a rather depressing picture of the state of our planet - we (homo sapiens) continue to increase the amount of carbon in the Earth’s atmosphere. And the rate of increase continues to grow.

The report - using data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth Systems Research Laboratory and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography - indicates that atmospheric CO2 emissions reached 389.6 ppm in 2010, a 39% increase since the start of the Industrial Revolution, and the highest in at least the last 800,000 years.

The largest contribution to climate change is not cow farts, but the burning of fossil fuels - hopefully no surprise to anyone reading this. Unfortunately, on this front, more bad news. CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels (namely coal, petroleum, and natural gas) increased by 5.9% in 2010 - the highest levels in human history and  49% higher than in 1990 (the reference year for the Kyoto Protocol). Coal burning was responsible for 52% of this growth.

A New York Times article highlighting the research has a quote from Glen P. Peters, one of the leaders of the team from the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo which produced the study which sums it up best. He says, “Each year that emissions go up, there’s another year of negotiations, another year of indecision.”

The bad news is that the global A/E/C industry is a significant part of the problem. The good news is, we can also be a part of the solution. This is an important moment in the history of our profession and our planet. No one lays this out better than Ed Mazria and Architecture2030. Commitment to the 2030 Challenge is the first step. Transforming your practice is the critical element - for survival’s sake.

7 Billion People - A Design Challenge

A big day today in the history of our precious planet - it is estimated by the UN that today is the day we cross the threshold of 7 billion people alive on Earth. Admittedly the science is a little fuzzy on how exactly to count 7 billion people, but let’s assume that they are right, plus/minus even a month or two. The pace of population growth is quite remarkable.

In 1804, we reached 1 billion. It took until 1960 to get to 3 billion people. Then the population exploded. 4 billion in 1974; 5 billion in 1987; 6 billion in 1999 -which brings us to today.

The scale of humanity’s need for better design cannot be understated. Globally and locally, the services of much of the design community have not served most of the population. The good news is that there is a movement to shift these paradigms. The Rural Studio at Auburn University is a model many schools are now trying to replicate - students doing great design at little cost. Public Architecture continues to encourage the design professions to give a simple 1% of their time to pro bono design. Their former Executive Director, John Cary, is curating a discussion about the movement at www.PublicInterestDesign.org . The recently launched IDEO.org is striving to partner IDEO’s approach of human-centered design with the people who need it the most. Project H Design is incorporating design into education.

7 billion people is clearly a milestone - and one with uncertain consequences as growth continues towards 9 billion by 2050 (slowing a little). The scale of solutions can and must vary - what matters is that the design community begins developing them more quickly and more responsibly.

China overtakes US as largest construction market

A recent article in the Financial Times noted that in 2010, China spent more than $1 trillion on new building projects, overtaking the United States. Comparatively, investments in construction - both private and public - decreased in the United States from roughly $1.5 trillion in 2005 to $983 billion in 2010. Decreasing opportunities in the United States - and increasing opportunities abroad - are of no surprise to most architecture firms in the US and firms of all shapes and sizes are now working in overseas markets.

Since 1998, Greenway Group, on behalf of the Design Futures Council, has conducted the Multinational Design Firm Fee Survey, which examines the 30 largest exporting architecture firms headquartered in the United States. Nine firms have held a spot on the Top 30 list for the past 12 years:

• Arquitectonica
• Cannon Design
• Gensler
• HOK
• Kohn Pedersen Fox Associates
• NBBJ
• Perkins + Will
• RTKL
• WATG

Fee growth by firms in the DesignIntelligence Top 30 US-Based Multinational Design Firms has taken place every year for 12 years without exception - and we expect 2011 to be no different. The annualized growth rate for the DI Top 30 in their non-US based revenue is 29.9%. A report released by Global Construction Perspectives forecasts that China will account for 20% of total construction by 2020, up from 14% today.

We believe that developing resilient strategies and engaging foresight scenarios is critical for firms engaged in international work, and for those exploring opportunities in these markets. Is there money to be made? Of course. But for inexperienced firms, there may be more to be lost. Are the design opportunities unique? In many cases yes.

The design professions, particularly the A/E/C community, have a tremendous opportunity to impact future development of cities, whether in China or in another slice of the $97.7 trillion global construction market over the next decade. How globalization continues to shape our practices - and how we in turn shape our environment - is a constantly developing paradigm of practice. We may not know exactly how, but we certainly know that within the challenges of global practice lay numerous opportunities for growth, prosperity, great service, and meaningful design.

The Rising Dragon: Design in China

Paul Doherty contributes the following guest blog. Paul is senior vice president of Screampoint, which provides governments, multinationals, and large real estate portfolio companies with visual solutions to manage and maintain their assets.

I am enjoying my adopted home country of the People’s Republic of China. I have settled into having a wonderful family, a growing business, and a feeling that the future is very bright. You take a keen interest in design when you make a place home. Just ask any residential designer about their clients’ interest level of every detail of their home.

I live and work in Shanghai in an area called the French Concession. Shanghai has been a city constantly shaped by its foreign trade, foreign invasions, and foreign occupation. You can see the influence of each era in the different parts of the city: the Bund, the German Concession, the English Concession, the French Concession. Thus, I live in an area that could be picked up and placed in the middle of Paris and not miss a beat.

But what makes a city is not just the vocabulary and context of its buildings. It lies in its smells, sounds and people. What makes Shanghai so wonderful is the variety of its smells, sounds, people … and its neighborhoods that make you feel as if you are in a different city by entering any one of them.

Shanghai is hosting the World’s Expo at the moment. Seventy million people have been to this city already to experience the Expo, with two more months to go. The showcasing of the world’s cultures, foods, and design are making this year’s Expo one of the best. The astonishing architecture and design of the numerous pavilions alone is worth the trip. But with the exposure to the world’s designs at the Expo — and understanding that Shanghai has a past that is shaped by outside design influences and architecture — a sensitive question is beginning to emerge in the design community of Shanghai and throughout China: What is modern Chinese design?

My personal view is that the Chinese are struggling with finding their own design vocabulary when it concerns buildings and the context of urban design. The majority of building design for large-scale development is coming from Western-based design firms. This has created a disturbing array of geometric shapes throughout cities like Shanghai that have not created a design movement, trend, or vernacular that can say to the world, This is a Chinese building.

One trend that is emerging is a movement toward historic preservation, seen in developments like Xintiandi, Tian Xi Fang, and the new Sinan Mansions. Taking its cue from the past, the rehabilitation of older Chinese structures and repositioning them for modern functions has rekindled an interest in older Chinese design forms, culture, and meaning. This combination of learning from the past to define the future could be giving rise to a new generation of Chinese designers who will define this century’s design in China.

One can only hope that in their home, a true design emerges that helps better define a city, a culture, and its people.

The Design Decade

We seem to have a habit of thinking in 10-year cycles. The 1970s are remembered for the oil crisis and stagflation, the ’80s brought us Reagan tax cuts and the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the ’90s saw the invention of the Internet (which we called the “information highway” back in the day) with the resulting dot-com boom (and bust). But what of the first decade of the 21st century? There does not seem to be a convenient nickname for it. The zeros? The aughts? The Os?

Endings are also beginnings. As the inaugural decade of the 21st century is closed out, the curtain rises on the next. A lot of people are relieved to see this one recede into the rear view mirror, as it was difficult on many fronts.  We started off with a crisis that failed to materialize: Y2K, which predicted the world-wide crash of computer systems. This was followed in short order by a real but unexpected disaster on Sept. 11, 2001, that marked the beginning of an era in which world-wide terrorism became an undeniable fact of life. Two wars and unprecedented prosperity followed. Then the Great Recession, which, in addition to wiping out homes, jobs, and 401(k)s, shook our collective sense of self confidence to the bone. And let’s not forget the tsunami in Sri Lanka, reminding us all of nature’s incredible destructive power.

Yet despite it all, we are still substantially better off than we were 10 years ago.

Looking back, it seems that the first decade of the 21st century will be remembered most for establishing global connectivity. We now understand that a coal-burning power plant in Shanghai not only pollutes China but also Canada, and it’s painfully clear that a bunch of unpaid mortgages in Detroit and Phoenix can tank a pension fund in Ireland. Cell phones have become ubiquitous and can be loaded with hundreds of “apps,” including cameras, games, texting, twittering, and GPS (allowing us no excuse to get lost anymore).  With Google we can find out just about anything we want at any time. And as Tiger Woods knows all too well, real privacy has ceased to exist. All this has happened in an astonishingly short time.

So while life is more complicated, challenging, and dangerous, we can be comforted by the fact that we are all in it together, for good or for ill, which in turn creates a huge incentive for mutual cooperation.

Global connectivity also alters our sense of scale, as things that once seemed far away and relatively unimportant, like a hurricane in Louisiana, now really hit home. Everyone everywhere has become our neighbor, and that may be the biggest revelation of all.

Global connectivity has tremendous implications for the A/E/C industry. The buildings we produce consume huge amounts of natural resources to construct and maintain, and they are responsible for nearly half of all carbon emissions — far more than any other source, including transportation. Wise use of our natural resources is essential if future generations are to survive and thrive.

It’s clear that design is not just about creating objects but also processes. More than ever, society can benefit by adopting the designer’s problem-solving mindset when grappling with issues, be they in health care, education, the economy, or even politics.

This first decade was difficult in many ways, but it also opened new doors.  For designers everywhere, it’s a profound leadership opportunity.

What’s Unfair about Competition?

Lunch at the Hyatt Regency Dehli, New Dehli, India

A few weeks ago I was in New Delhi, India, where architectural services cost about a fourth as much as they do in North America. This low-cost option has been perceived as the driving reason for the outsourcing phenomenon of the past decade. Some view this as unfair competition.

North American firms have contracted for parts of their technology services to be accomplished overseas. This has created an around-the-clock service model. China and India have become the global leaders and the preferred choice for outsourcing services. Today, some North American and European professional practices have their own captive “insourcing” operations in India and Asia to support their other offices where labor and overhead are often much more expensive.

There are parallels in other professional practice areas. In the management consulting and technology field, U.S.-based management consultancy Accenture says that its firm in India will grow by more than 5,000 staff this year and will surpass 55,000 in India alone. And it predicts continuing growth that will not only serve the growing needs of India but significant parts of the developing world and developed world as well.

There is much more to this story than low cost/high quality talent, however. And this difference is not just about low cost. It is the high level of diligence and work ethic among professionals in India. Little waste in process, focused attention, lean overhead, very latest technology, and speed. Executives travel to client offices via coach class, even for a 15-hour flight. When they book their hotels, it is two to four people per room. They are eager to please, and their enthusiasm for the future of the design professions is contagious. This lean overhead, high work ethic culture has redefined outsourcing of architectural services. We believe it will continue to do so.

While the building information modeling skill levels in India have become legendary in just a few short years, the innovative nature of Indian professional practices is not just a story of technologically advanced practitioners in architecture and engineering.

Indian professionals have catalyzed fundamental change during the world’s recession. They have found new ways of meeting client needs, including meeting those that clients didn’t even know they had. They are eager imagineers of the future of professional practice.

Global innovators see opportunities that others are missing. They find service niches that are changing the face of the architectural and engineering business. Furthermore, they are matching their capabilities and quickly adapting to the world’s changing markets.