The War on Talent 2.0: Are You Ready?
Posted: November 2nd, 2009 | Author: Jonathan Bahe | Filed under: Best Practices, Economy, Education, Leadership, Professional practice, Publications, Strategy, Sustainability, Technology, Uncategorized | Tags: talent |It is hard to believe that just a few years ago, one of the biggest conversations within the architecture and design profession was the war for talent — or a shortage of talent. Firms couldn’t find enough workers to fill seats much less enough talented staff. Leaders were in short supply. A very limited supply of H1B visas were accessible to architecture and design firms. Times have certainly changed.
The conditions of today don’t need to be explained in detail. Unemployment in the profession is over 15%. Firms are struggling to keep even talented staff. Backlogs are shrinking or in some cases evaporating. Competition for new projects is fierce. Each situation is unique, but common pain is felt by all. However, it becomes increasingly clear that we all have two choices: We can be the victims of these economic and structural shifts or we can be inventors of strategic success and satisfaction.
A part of this success must be setting a vision and developing strategy for the new world of architecture, whatever that may be. The future condition is unknown, but we can control our attitudes and develop scenarios to allow for our success in whatever this condition holds. One future condition that is certain is that the role of talented design professionals will be even greater. And yet where will this talent come from?
The share of the U.S. workforce that has a post-high school education is not expected to rise in the next 20 years. This is a scary fact given the national high school graduation rate hovers around 50% in the nation’s fifty largest cities, and rises only to 71% in the nation’s suburbs. In some of our more diverse urban areas, where much of the diversity needed for the relevancy of our profession resides, the graduation rates drop to nearly 30%. According to 2007 Department of Education Statistics, only 31% of 8th-graders in the United States are at or above proficient levels in standardized math testing. These are just a few of the frightening trends surrounding the struggles of education.
In a Journal of Business and Psychology article titled “Attracting Applicants in the War for Talent: Differences Among Workplace Preferences in High Achievers,” the authors state, “Students with very high cognitive abilities and strong records of extracurricular activities prefer ‘investigative’ occupations involving analytical or intellectual activity aimed at problem solving and the creation or use of new knowledge.” This is terrific news for architecture and design. However, the fact is that only 10% of people are in the top 10%.
Rather than spending all of our resources chasing the top 10%, I recommend we spend more of them chasing the other 90%. We all want a slice of that top 10%. But by developing a vision and strategies that embrace new paradigms and dynamics within our profession we can begin to develop effective ways of recruiting from the 90% and developing them into the top 10%. If we don’t, competitors will. If we wait for the future to happen, it won’t be desirable. This is the opportunity to affect the future health of our organizations that we have been looking for.
The structure of your thought process is illogical. You say that a few years ago, there was a shortage of talent and leaders. But now, you say that talent and leaders are in a condition of oversupply.
A couple of comments:
1) ‘One future condition that is certain is that the role of talented design professionals will be even greater’. Why? Who said so? How far into the future? Based on what evidence?
2) ‘And yet where will this talent come from?’ This one is pretty easy - I would suggest that it will come from the oversupply of talent and leaders that you pointed out earlier.
Two more points:
1) The U.S. Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences shows that the national high school graduation rate in 2007/2008 is projected to be 74.4% - a far cry from your ‘scary’ statistic of 50%… (reference http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d07/tables/dt07_100.asp)
2) I wasn’t aware that any federal agency (including the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics) published the unemployment rate for the industry.
Finally, I would contend that there is a very good reason why a substantial amount of resources are spent chasing the top 10%. The majority of this top 10% is likely to be highly educated, highly capable, highly discerning, hard working, they probably display excellent judgment and they have show initiative. Developing the remaining 90% to the same level of education, capability, judgment and initiative as the top 10% would probably require a lot more resources than the upfront investment of snagging the top 10%. So, my recommendation – just go for the top 10%.
Thanks for the comments. I would like to clarify your comments by saying that I never suggest in my post that talent and leadership are in oversupply. In recent years, this was the focus of major strategic discussions at firms across the country, and now has taken a back seat to other discussions. While there is certainly talent on the streets who have been laid off from firms, nearly every firm leader would tell you that this remains a problem for the future of our industry.
In response to your comments more directly, we see corporations and businesses across the globe turning more and more to the power of design and design thinking than ever before. Pick up any issue of Fast Company magazine and you will see how some of the most innovative companies are using design as a differentiator and maintaining success even through this recession. If you haven’t already read it, I’d also encourage you to pick up Daniel Pink’s book, A Whole New Mind: Why Right Brainers Will Rule the Future.
Thanks for sharing the link on education statistics. I have updated the post slightly to reflect this. I would however point you to the following articles in the New York Times around the issue. There is a rather large gap between what states report and what is actually happening.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/22/education/22dropout.html?_r=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/education/20graduation.html?pagewanted=1
As for unemployment rates in the profession, the U.S. Census Bureau tracks unemployment by industry. We can also project these number using known data about staff reductions within the industry.
It is a strategic decision on the part of firms to focus their energy and resources on chasing the top 10% only. However, firms must ask themselves if there is much difference between the top 10% and the top 25%. Your assumption that the top 10% displays all of the characteristics you mention is quite interesting. I would argue that the top 10% displays some of those characteristics, or all of them to varying degrees - but very few people are in the top 10% in every category you mention. Rather, finding well-rounded individuals who each have their strengths and weaknesses is a strategy for success. Firms can put them into positions where they can use their strengths most effectively, and simultaneously surround them with mentors, coaches, and professional development opportunities, which they can use to improve in their weaker areas.
Just a correction to your title. The original paper written by Ed Michaels of McKinsey was entitled “The War for Talent”, not on talent.
Or perhaps you changed it because you feel there is a concerted war “on” the design profession?
Just curious . . .
Dave-
You are correct in the title of the original title. I believe that moving forward there will be both a war for talent, and a war on talent. As it seems as though you are likely aware of the 1997 McKinsey report, I won’t go into greater detail about the war for talent. I do believe there will be a war ON talent, as organizations outside the traditional definition of the architecture profession seek the power of design thinking within their organizations. These organizations will continue to recruit talented people from the design professions to use their problem-solving abilities in new ways.